Whenever a problem like gun violence or illegal immigration gains traction in the media, you'll find people misrepresenting the problem. The world is full of uninformed people, but the world is also full of dishonest actors trying to "sell" an idea. This post is the first of several where I will try to help the curious reader defend themselves from the fools and con artists and understand social problems, for real. Confirmation bias is just the tendency to look for information that confirms what we already know or think. Everyone wants to be right, and the more important the subject is, the more the person wants to continue being right. Information that shows we're right gets more weight than information showing we are wrong. So, with that psychological note in mind, let's look at the outline of a formula for thinking about social problems. Abusing Statistics - Raw Numbers A real thinker always gives numbers a context and always uses the right kind of numbers. A...
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